Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
