Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
